Economic Reporting Fail

The Problem With Claiming the September Jobs Report Fell Short of Predictions

Hint, whose prediction matters

Author provided image. Data from DeBarros (2021); United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (2021).

When the September jobs report dropped last week, headlines loudly proclaimed that the 194,000 new nonfarm jobs fell short of the predicted 500,000 — a 306,000 deficit. This narrative has a hole large enough to fly a…